Hamilton won his first title last year with McLaren, and Mosley reckons the British squad have done a very good job preparing for the upcoming season.
The FIA boss believes Ferrari are still getting used to their new structure, something that is playing into the hands of McLaren.
"If someone said 'Here is 100 pounds, you have got to put it on a driver', I would probably put it on Lewis," Mosley told selected reporters on Thursday. "I think McLaren have done a very good job over the winter, everything I hear indicates that.
"Ferrari are still really getting their act together after a big management change whereas I don't think the management change at McLaren is so big, it is more continuity.
"But I may be completely wrong and it could be someone unexpected like Kubica, for example. I just don't know, or Alonso. But if you had to bet at the moment you would bet on Lewis."
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